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When we talk about
bull and bear stock markets reminds me that it's a zoo out there. And, like any
zoo, there are quite a few wild (?) species to be found!
The first two are
the bulls and the bears. We do know that a bull market is when stock prices are
climbing strongly and a bear market is when they're languishing.
One common myth
is that the terms "bull market" and "bear market" are derived from the way those
animals attack a foe, because bears attack by swiping their paws downward and
bulls toss their horns upward.
This is a useful
mnemonic, but is not the true origin of the terms.
Long ago, "bear
skin jobbers" were known for selling bear skins that they did not own; i.e., the
bears had not yet been caught. This was the original source of the term "bear."
This term eventually was used to describe short sellers, speculators who sold
shares that they did not own, bought after a price drop, and then delivered the
shares.
Because bull and
bear baiting were once popular sports, "bulls" was understood as the opposite of
"bears." I.e., the bulls were those people who bought in the expectation that a
stock price would rise, not fall.
Both bull and
bear markets are inevitable!
Smart investors
try to anticipate both events to profit from their eventuality.
Bear markets are
generally shorter in duration than bull markets. To avoid being hurt by bear
markets you must recognize the signs early and move part of your assets into
cash equivalent investments.
We do
recommend that you invest for the long term. Don't let the bears get you down!
Abraham Lincoln
(1809 - 1865) once said: "When you have got an elephant by the hind legs and he
is trying to run away, it is best to let him run!" The same thing is true of
bears - don't panic and sell low. Let the bear market run its course, which
history tells us is likely to be short.
On the other
hand, a bull market can leave many investors feeling pretty good about their
ability to prosper.
Their confidence
bolstered by the good times ... Some even find themselves swept up in "Bull
Market Myopia" and forget the basic tenets of smart investing, like asset
allocation and portfolio diversification.
Holding good
stocks through bull and bear markets is a prudent strategy. However, many
investors feel that they do not want to be in the market during a bear market.
It is difficult to predict when to move in and out of the market.
When a bear
market ends, a strong upward move can occur in a short time. If you are not in
the market you will miss the move. The probability that your timing will be
wrong is very high.
Unlike
slow-starting bull markets, bear markets may start with a mini-crash - a major
drop within a few days when investors least expect it.
Many investors
are afraid to get out of a bull market for fear of missing "big profits" at the
top of the market.
This is a
recipe for disaster!
It is also
known as greed!
As a bull market
continues to increase, investors should start to decrease their stock holdings
and move them into cash or money markets accounts.
Now, besides
bulls and bears there are two other animals in our zoo to keep watch for!
Ostriches:
Are investors who
stick to their old strategies, oblivious to changes in the world around them.
And then there
are the Hogs:
Bulls can make
money ...
Bears can make money ...
But hogs are investors who are too greedy and usually get slaughtered!
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